Current Ideas

Seagate technology (STX)

Hard Disk Drive manufacturer going through its first technology-driven product cycle in 18 years which will result in expanding gross margins and higher profitability.

Risk vs. reward of $47 (-29%) to $362 (+446%) from 4/10/23 stock price of $65.35

Presentation

UGE International (UGE.V) (UGEIF)

Community solar developer and operator which trades below the discounted value of its 2020 backlog and assigns no platform value to huge growth ahead.

Risk vs. reward of C$1.85 (-13%) to $9.61 (+354%) from 4/1/21 stock price of C$2.12

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TERADATA (TDC)

Data warehouse software company which has essentially completed its transition to the cloud/subscription model and should see continued ARR/recurring revenue growth as well as high incremental FCF generation.

Risk vs. reward of $35.00 (-10%) to $69.00 (+80%) from 3/30/21 stock price of $38.23

Presentation

arbor (abr)

mREIT that could be worth +77% more due to stable servicing earnings stream and access to low cost funding which enabled them to maintain their loan book while peers had to liquidate at lows. ~19% dividend yield could be sustainable.

Risk vs. reward of $5.70 (-11%) to $11.40 (+77%) from 5/14/20 stock price of $6.43

Presentation

Vertiv (VRT)

Equipment play on datacenter space with 60% recurring revenue, former Honeywell CEO at the helm, lots of margin expansion ahead of it, and cheap vs. peers.

Risk vs. reward of $7.35 (-27%) to $26.42 (+162%) from 4/15/20 stock price of $9.72

Presentation

Past Ideas

First Data (FDc)

First Data is an under-valued merchant acquiror whose business is materially improving. The key to the first data surrounds positive organic growth driven by lower churn.

Risk vs. reward of $15.00 (-16%) to $33.00 (+85%) from 11/16/18 stock price of $17.82

Presentation

Autodesk (adsk)

ADSK is about to break-out from their shift to subscription, which will unleash FCF growth. Both Adobe and PTC had much bigger moves after they flipped to accelerating FCF growth.

Risk vs. reward of $116.00 (-14%) to $213.00 (+59%) from 11/16/18 stock price of $134.04

Presentation

ONE MEDICAL (ONEM)

Primary medical care provider with >100% upside doing something no one else is with lowest cost of care delivery and superior unit economics which should be able to scale much faster than the Street contemplates.

Risk vs. reward of $28.00 (-6%) to $91.00 (+206%) from 8/20/20 stock price of $29.67 (originally put on the idea at $38.87 on 7/20/20)

Presentation

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